The global perspective on India is, rightly, one of admiration—its rise to becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy is marked by high GDP growth and growing foreign investments. However, alongside this optimism is a less sunny reality that policymakers can no longer afford to ignore: the creeping rise of the current account deficit (CAD). Warning signals—such as widening trade deficits, unstable foreign capital inflows, remittance uncertainties, and a weakening export environment—point to a potential external imbalance that, if left unchecked, could destabilise India’s growth trajectory.

The Numbers Behind the Alarm

India’s current account deficit stood at $11.5 billion in the third quarter of FY25, or 1.1% of GDP—a manageable figure in isolation. The concern lies in what’s ahead. The merchandise trade deficit surged to a five-month high of $26.42 billion in April, with imports growing faster than exports. GST data for May showed a sharp 73% rise in customs revenue on imports, highlighting a trend of import-heavy consumption.

Rising gold imports and increased demand for petroleum products are expected to add to these outflows. While strong internal demand reflects buoyant domestic activity, such import-driven growth is not sustainable unless export performance improves in tandem.

Remittance and Tariff Threats

Another growing pressure point is the uncertainty surrounding remittance inflows—a critical component of India’s current account. With a slowing global economy and Donald Trump’s proposed 5% excise tax on remittances from the U.S. (India’s largest source), inflows could be seriously disrupted. For millions of Indian households, this is not just a macroeconomic data point—this is money that pays for food, education, and healthcare.

Capital Flight and the Yield Gap

India is now facing an external financing gap as capital outflows mount. FY25 began with strong foreign portfolio inflows but ended with net outflows totalling ₹1.53 trillion (approximately $17.8 billion). Rising U.S. bond yields, contrasted with relatively flat Indian yields, are driving investors toward safer American assets.

Any further rate cuts by the RBI—while domestically justifiable given inflation dynamics—could worsen the trend by widening the interest rate differential and triggering additional outflows.

Import Mix: The Energy–Gold Tug of War

India’s import mix is evolving in ways that further strain the CAD outlook. Even as oil prices soften, crude import volumes have increased to 242.4 million tonnes, with dependency nearing 89.1%. This heavy reliance on imported energy is a drain on dollar reserves and poses long-term risks to energy security.

Meanwhile, gold imports have surged, driven not just by consumer demand but also by central banks hedging against global currency volatility. In India, gold serves as both a luxury and a traditional store of value. But during periods of global instability, higher gold imports worsen the external deficit without contributing to productive investment.

Why CAD Matters

A widening current account deficit puts downward pressure on the rupee, drives up inflation via costlier imports, and makes external borrowing more expensive. The combined effect can severely impact businesses that rely on imported inputs and global financing. With upcoming elections and ongoing fiscal constraints, the government faces additional pressure to manage these macroeconomic headwinds wisely.

Policy Options: Focus on Exports, Remittances, and Energy Strategy

1. Boost Export Competitiveness
India must strengthen export growth through incentives for high-value sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and IT services. Strategic bilateral trade deals can also help tap into new markets.

2. Protect Remittance Flows
India should diplomatically engage with the U.S. and other key economies to safeguard remittance pipelines. Making formal remittance channels more efficient, accessible, and affordable will help preserve inflows.

3. Rethink Import Dependency
While some imports are essential, gold monetisation schemes, accelerated renewable energy adoption, and building strategic oil reserves during low-price cycles can help manage vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

A current account deficit acts like a slow-burning fuse. It may not explode overnight, but if ignored, it can spark capital flight, currency crashes, and emergency policy tightening—all of which disproportionately hurt the poor and middle class.

India has the resilience and policy capacity to address the challenge, but the time for action is now. If the country truly aspires to become a Viksit Bharat by 2047, it must build not just a wealthy economy but a stable, self-reliant, and globally secure one. Forward-looking management of the current account isn’t just about sound economics—it’s about safeguarding India’s long-term sovereignty and economic dignity.