Opinion: U.S. Economic Confidence in 2025 – Slight Gains, Deep Divides

Despite a modest uptick in June, economic confidence in the United States remains firmly in negative territory, underscoring lingering public concerns over inflation, policy uncertainty, and global instability. According to Gallup, the Economic Confidence Index (ECI) moved from -22 in April to -14 in June 2025. While sentiment has improved slightly, it is still far from recovery. A deeper look at the numbers reveals a stark partisan divide, driven largely by President Trump’s second-term policies and a recent military strike on Iran—developments that may further shift public perception in the coming months.

Current Economic Perception:

Slight Improvement, But Still Below Neutral
The ECI, which ranges from +100 (maximum confidence) to -100 (complete pessimism), remains in the red at -14. While this is an improvement from the low of -26 in October 2024, it still pales in comparison to the confidence levels seen during Trump’s first term. The modest gain reflects slightly better views on current economic conditions rather than optimism about the future.

Gallup data shows that 41% of Americans consider the economy “only fair,” 31% rate it as “poor,” and just 27% say it is “excellent” or “good.” Notably, the percentage rating the economy as “poor” has declined by six points since May, likely a result of recent stock market stability and the Federal Reserve’s pause on interest rate hikes.

Economic Outlook Remains Flat:

Persistent Pessimism About the Future
A key factor in the ECI’s ongoing negativity is the public’s unshaken pessimism about the future. Only 36% of Americans believe the economy is improving, while 59% think it is getting worse. These numbers have remained largely unchanged throughout 2025, reflecting widespread scepticism amid geopolitical tensions, expensive borrowing costs, and stubborn inflation.

Even as core indicators like inflation and unemployment stabilise, uncertainties surrounding the long-term effects of tariffs and the recent U.S. military action in Iran continue to cloud the outlook. The Federal Reserve has hinted at possible rate cuts to address inflation risks, but a cautious policy stance persists.

Partisan Divide in Confidence:

Republicans Upbeat, Democrats and Independents Sceptical
One of the most striking elements of Gallup’s index is the sharp partisan split. Republicans post a robust +52 confidence score, indicating strong support for the Trump administration’s economic stewardship—the highest Republican confidence level since October 2020.

In contrast, Democrats register a deeply negative score of -65, while independents come in at -22. These figures suggest political allegiance continues to significantly shape economic perceptions, often independent of objective data.

Support for Trump among Republicans remains overwhelming at 89%, while only 36% of independents and a mere 1% of Democrats approve of his performance. These numbers, however, precede the June 21 airstrikes on Iran, and evolving geopolitical fallout could shift the narrative.

Impact on Policy and Public Sentiment:

Gains in Confidence May Be Fragile
Despite the marginal improvement, confidence remains shallow. Inflation fears, tariff anxieties, and now the uncertainty surrounding foreign policy decisions all contribute to a cautious economic mood. With the Federal Reserve in a wait-and-watch mode and President Trump’s global posture raising questions, investor and consumer sentiment remains on edge.

Trump’s approval rating sits at a modest 40%—enough to suggest that his base remains intact, but not enough to signify broad public trust. Compared to his second-term lows, the figure is relatively stable, though the loss of support among independents highlights growing concerns that extend beyond purely economic issues.

Conclusion:

The slight rise in Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index for June 2025 indicates a momentary stabilisation rather than a full-blown rebound. While fewer Americans now view the economy as dire, apprehensions about the future remain strong. Inflation, elevated interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical tensions—especially the U.S. airstrike in Iran—continue to weigh on sentiment.

Economic perception in the U.S. remains deeply polarised, with Republicans maintaining high confidence and Democrats expressing strong scepticism. As events unfold on the global stage and domestic policy decisions take shape, American economic sentiment is likely to remain fragile and sharply divided in the months ahead.