India’s story of economic growth, which once shone bright as a gleaming beacon through the darkness all around, now threatens to turn tired. A grim picture unfolds in the latest Reuters poll: GDP growth has been lowered from 6.5% to an average of 6.3% for the current fiscal year. Though still ranking among the fastest-growing large economies, this number indicates a greater concern—one of flat private investment, hiring difficulties, and declining business sentiment, particularly against the backdrop of U.S. tariff threats.
The downgrade follows a few compounding factors. Chief among them is the resurfacing of trade tensions. The threat of a 26% U.S. tariff on Indian products—currently on hold for 90 days (about 3 months)—has already begun to chip away at business confidence. Even assuming India’s major exports to America are primarily in the services sector, the symbolism of these tariff threats cannot be denied. Businesses do not like uncertainty and unpredictability; when these are in short supply, investment becomes the first casualty.
Tariffs and Tremors in Sentiment
Sixty percent of economists concur that U.S. tariffs have driven business sentiment in India in a negative direction, according to the Reuters survey. Trade relations with the United States, a prime partner, are leaving everyone with uncertainty. This is compelling most sectors to pause capital expenditure plans. Sectors such as renewables, refineries, and cement—which once promised to lead investment-driven growth—are now scaling back.
In such a scenario, even the government’s growing infrastructure spending hasn’t been sufficient to offset private sector reluctance. While public investment may offer a short-term boost, long-term growth requires private enterprise to step in—and that just isn’t happening.
Beyond Growth: The Job Dilemma
One key worry lurking behind top-line growth statistics is that of jobs—more specifically, the quality of employment being generated. India puts tens of millions of young workers into the job market every year but is not creating enough good-quality jobs to absorb them. That mismatch is most prominently evident in urban middle-class angst. As Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu rightly observed, “Middle-class Indians are struggling.” Dipping sales in passenger cars, two-wheelers, and even housing reflect declining consumer confidence.
The real risk here is not merely a cyclical slowdown, but structural stagnation. Private investment has been flat for nearly a decade, which means the economy is consistently running below its potential.
The Case for a 1991-Style Reform Drive
It is against this backdrop that Kundu’s call for a “1991 moment” becomes particularly relevant. India’s last major liberalization drive, undertaken by then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, transformed the economic landscape. What the country needs now is a comparable transformation—a reduction in redundant regulations, a boost to investor confidence, and deeper integration with global value chains.
Ironically, the current tariff war may serve as the spur of such change. As the global economy slows down, India can either retreat into protectionism or use this moment to become more competitive, efficient, and investor friendly. Incremental reforms will no longer suffice; what India requires is bold, systemic transformation.
Monetary Policy Is a Supportive Tool, Not a Solution
The Reserve Bank of India has played its part by lowering interest rates, with speculation of a third consecutive cut in June. But the limits of monetary policy are becoming evident. Lower interest rates can reduce borrowing costs, but they cannot, by themselves, stimulate investment or create jobs. A 5.5% repo rate will not resolve structural investment drought.
What is needed now is concerted policy action—one that couples prudent monetary easing with bold fiscal and structural reforms. India’s aspiration to become a developed economy will remain just that—an aspiration—unless these deeper challenges are tackled head-on.
Conclusion: Time to Act, Not Just React
India’s economic potential remains enormous. But potential without action amounts to nothing. The ongoing slowdown, further aggravated by external tensions, is a call to action. The window for complacency has shut. To recapture its growth momentum and lift its people into a genuinely prosperous future, India must look beyond patchwork solutions and embrace long-term, transformative change—starting now.
